OTC Balance & Funding Rate Shows That Bitcoin Price Could Rally Soon?

  • Analysts note a decline in funding rates, indicating possible bullish momentum.
  • Data highlights that OTC desk balances have dropped significantly, reflecting sustained demand.
  • Recently, 14,000 dormant Bitcoins worth $1.37 billion moved on-chain, not to exchanges.

In a surprising turn of events, 14,000 Bitcoins worth $1.37 Billion have recently been moved on-chain, but intriguingly, they have not been sent to any exchanges. This unusual activity has captured the attention of many analysts, who are keen to understand its implications.

Notably, the anticipated price drop did not follow this movement, suggesting that investors are not viewing it as an immediate bearish signal. Also, experts views based on funding rate shows that the current cycle as is having a high chance for the BTC market to go up in the coming days.

As of February 10, 2025, Bitcoin price is trading at around $98,420, reflecting a modest 1.03% increase. Despite the recent fluctuations, Bitcoin price continues to maintain its dominance in the cryptocurrency space, holding a market share of 60.9%.

BTC/USD 1.D. | Source: TradingView

Since, the start of 2025 the price action shows that BTC has brought notable price swings, echoing the ongoing uncertainty in global markets. Investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s movements, especially given the shifting economic landscape and geopolitical factors.

Last year, Donald Trump’s victory acted as a significant catalyst, propelling Bitcoin price from $70,000 to over $100,000.

Now, the question remains that will Bitcoin rise to meet last year’s bullish predictions from firms like VanEck and Bitwise, or are we on the verge of a downturn? SKeep reading to find out.

A Sleeping Whale Woke up With A Stash Of $1.37 Billion

Recently, CryptoQuant data, which revealed that 14,000 BTC, dormant for 7 to 10 years, were moved early Monday morning. The average acquisition price of these coins is thought to be low, likely under $20K.

Interestingly, despite the substantial volume, these coins have not been sent to any exchanges; instead, they have been moved on-chain, suggesting that they are not meant for immediate sale.

CryptoQuant researcher Crypto Dan points out that such movements do not automatically indicate a price drop for Bitcoin. In fact, historical data shows that similar activities have not always led to declines.

source: cryptoquant

However, the situation could shift if the recently awakened whale decides to move their stash to exchanges to realize profits. Such an influx could create substantial selling pressure, potentially causing Bitcoin price to drop.

Additionally, uncertainty surrounds Bitcoin reserves in the U.S., which have yet to be established. Despite Donald Trump’s promise to address this on his first day in office, the lack of progress adds to the uncertainty.

This potential movement of 14,000 Bitcoins could trigger a wave of selling pressure, largely influenced by the domino effect of investor sentiment.

Is On-Chain Data Pointing Towards Optimism For Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin USD has recently faced short-term pressure, but strong long-term support at the 100-period and 200-period EMAs indicates that a rebound could be on the horizon.

Moreover analyst are bullish too, Alex points out that in the current cycle, the funding rate has declined. It shows that when the Bitcoin market has often shown bullish momentum immediately after the funding rate touched the neutral point. This means that there is a high chance for the BTC market to go up in the coming days.

source: x

Adding to the optimism, February 2024 has seen more outflows than inflows in exchange netflow, signaling growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

source: cryptoquant

Recent insights from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reveal that institutional players, such as hedge funds, governments, and large corporations have historically utilized OTC desks to acquire Bitcoin without affecting market prices.

In September 2021, the OTC desk balance stood at around 480,000 BTC, but it has since dwindled to just 146,000 BTC. This decline persists even after Bitcoin reached $100,000, reflecting sustained demand.

source: cryptoquant

Once the OTC balance is fully depleted, all future purchases will need to occur directly on exchanges, which could significantly impact Bitcoin price. Nevertheless, the remaining OTC holdings and ongoing institutional interest bolster optimism for Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.

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